因果推理提供了一种语言，以提出纯粹统计关联以外的重要介入和反事实问题。例如，在医学成像中，我们可能希望研究遗传，环境或生活方式因素对解剖表型正常和病理变异的因果关系。但是，尽管可以可靠地构建从自动图像分割中提取的3D表面网格的解剖形状模型，但缺乏计算工具来实现有关形态变化的因果推理。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了深层结构性因果形状模型（CSM），该模型利用了高质量的网格生成技术，从几何深度学习，在深层结构性因果模型的表达框架内。 CSM可以通过反事实网格产生来实现特定于受试者的预后（“如果患者大十岁，该患者的大脑结构将如何变化？”），这与大多数当前有关纯粹人口级统计形状建模的作品形成鲜明对比。我们通过许多定性和定量实验利用了3D脑结构的大数据集，证明了Pearl因果关系层次结构的所有级别CSM的能力。

在这项比赛中，参与者将使用时间序列数据在教育背景下解决机器学习的两个基本因果挑战。首先是确定不同构造之间的因果关系，其中构造被定义为学习的最小要素。第二个挑战是预测学习一个结构对回答其他结构问题的能力的影响。应对这些挑战将使学生的知识获取优化，这可以部署在影响数百万学生的真正的edtech解决方案中。参与者将在理想化的环境中运行这些任务，并具有合成数据和现实情况，并通过一系列A/B测试收集的评估数据。

因果推断对于跨业务参与，医疗和政策制定等领域的数据驱动决策至关重要。然而，关于因果发现的研究已经与推理方法分开发展，从而阻止了两个领域方法的直接组合。在这项工作中，我们开发了深层端到端因果推理（DECI），这是一种基于流动的非线性添加噪声模型，该模型具有观察数据，并且可以执行因果发现和推理，包括有条件的平均治疗效果（CATE） ）估计。我们提供了理论上的保证，即DECI可以根据标准因果发现假设恢复地面真实因果图。受应用影响的激励，我们将该模型扩展到具有缺失值的异质，混合型数据，从而允许连续和离散的治疗决策。我们的结果表明，与因果发现的相关基线相比，DECI的竞争性能和（c）在合成数据集和因果机器学习基准测试基准的一千多个实验中，跨数据类型和缺失水平进行了估计。

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to inverse problems, as it could provide decision-makers with valuable information about the inversion results. For example, seismic inversion is a notoriously ill-posed inverse problem due to the band-limited and noisy nature of seismic data. It is therefore of paramount importance to quantify the uncertainties associated to the inversion process to ease the subsequent interpretation and decision making processes. Within this framework of reference, sampling from a target posterior provides a fundamental approach to quantifying the uncertainty in seismic inversion. However, selecting appropriate prior information in a probabilistic inversion is crucial, yet non-trivial, as it influences the ability of a sampling-based inference in providing geological realism in the posterior samples. To overcome such limitations, we present a regularized variational inference framework that performs posterior inference by implicitly regularizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss with a CNN-based denoiser by means of the Plug-and-Play methods. We call this new algorithm Plug-and-Play Stein Variational Gradient Descent (PnP-SVGD) and demonstrate its ability in producing high-resolution, trustworthy samples representative of the subsurface structures, which we argue could be used for post-inference tasks such as reservoir modelling and history matching. To validate the proposed method, numerical tests are performed on both synthetic and field post-stack seismic data.

Scientists and philosophers have debated whether humans can trust advanced artificial intelligence (AI) agents to respect humanity's best interests. Yet what about the reverse? Will advanced AI agents trust humans? Gauging an AI agent's trust in humans is challenging because--absent costs for dishonesty--such agents might respond falsely about their trust in humans. Here we present a method for incentivizing machine decisions without altering an AI agent's underlying algorithms or goal orientation. In two separate experiments, we then employ this method in hundreds of trust games between an AI agent (a Large Language Model (LLM) from OpenAI) and a human experimenter (author TJ). In our first experiment, we find that the AI agent decides to trust humans at higher rates when facing actual incentives than when making hypothetical decisions. Our second experiment replicates and extends these findings by automating game play and by homogenizing question wording. We again observe higher rates of trust when the AI agent faces real incentives. Across both experiments, the AI agent's trust decisions appear unrelated to the magnitude of stakes. Furthermore, to address the possibility that the AI agent's trust decisions reflect a preference for uncertainty, the experiments include two conditions that present the AI agent with a non-social decision task that provides the opportunity to choose a certain or uncertain option; in those conditions, the AI agent consistently chooses the certain option. Our experiments suggest that one of the most advanced AI language models to date alters its social behavior in response to incentives and displays behavior consistent with trust toward a human interlocutor when incentivized.

Despite recent success in large language model (LLM) reasoning, LLMs still struggle with hierarchical multi-step reasoning like generating complex programs. In these cases, humans often start with a high-level algorithmic design and implement each part gradually. We introduce Parsel, a framework enabling automatic implementation and validation of complex algorithms with code LLMs, based on hierarchical function descriptions in natural language. Parsel can be used across domains requiring hierarchical reasoning, e.g. code synthesis, theorem proving, and robotic planning. We demonstrate Parsel's capabilities by using it to generate complex programs that cannot currently be automatically implemented from one description and backtranslating Python programs in the APPS dataset. Beyond modeling capabilities, Parsel allows problem-solving with high-level algorithmic designs, benefiting both students and professional programmers.

Reinforcement learning can enable robots to navigate to distant goals while optimizing user-specified reward functions, including preferences for following lanes, staying on paved paths, or avoiding freshly mowed grass. However, online learning from trial-and-error for real-world robots is logistically challenging, and methods that instead can utilize existing datasets of robotic navigation data could be significantly more scalable and enable broader generalization. In this paper, we present ReViND, the first offline RL system for robotic navigation that can leverage previously collected data to optimize user-specified reward functions in the real-world. We evaluate our system for off-road navigation without any additional data collection or fine-tuning, and show that it can navigate to distant goals using only offline training from this dataset, and exhibit behaviors that qualitatively differ based on the user-specified reward function.

While skin cancer classification has been a popular and valuable deep learning application for years, there has been little consideration of the context in which testing images are taken. Traditional melanoma classifiers rely on the assumption that their testing environments are analogous to the structured images on which they are trained. This paper combats this notion, arguing that mole size, a vital attribute in professional dermatology, is a red herring in automated melanoma detection. Although malignant melanomas are consistently larger than benign melanomas, this distinction proves unreliable and harmful when images cannot be contextually scaled. This implementation builds a custom model that eliminates size as a training feature to prevent overfitting to incorrect parameters. Additionally, random rotation and contrast augmentations are performed to simulate the real-world use of melanoma detection applications. Several custom models with varying forms of data augmentation are implemented to demonstrate the most significant features of the generalization abilities of mole classifiers. These implementations show that user unpredictability is crucial when utilizing such applications. The caution required when manually modifying data is acknowledged, as data loss and biased conclusions are necessary considerations in this process. Additionally, mole size inconsistency and its significance are discussed in both the dermatology and deep learning communities.

Photo-identification (photo-id) is one of the main non-invasive capture-recapture methods utilised by marine researchers for monitoring cetacean (dolphin, whale, and porpoise) populations. This method has historically been performed manually resulting in high workload and cost due to the vast number of images collected. Recently automated aids have been developed to help speed-up photo-id, although they are often disjoint in their processing and do not utilise all available identifying information. Work presented in this paper aims to create a fully automatic photo-id aid capable of providing most likely matches based on all available information without the need for data pre-processing such as cropping. This is achieved through a pipeline of computer vision models and post-processing techniques aimed at detecting cetaceans in unedited field imagery before passing them downstream for individual level catalogue matching. The system is capable of handling previously uncatalogued individuals and flagging these for investigation thanks to catalogue similarity comparison. We evaluate the system against multiple real-life photo-id catalogues, achieving mAP@IOU[0.5] = 0.91, 0.96 for the task of dorsal fin detection on catalogues from Tanzania and the UK respectively and 83.1, 97.5% top-10 accuracy for the task of individual classification on catalogues from the UK and USA.

Automated Machine Learning-based systems' integration into a wide range of tasks has expanded as a result of their performance and speed. Although there are numerous advantages to employing ML-based systems, if they are not interpretable, they should not be used in critical, high-risk applications where human lives are at risk. To address this issue, researchers and businesses have been focusing on finding ways to improve the interpretability of complex ML systems, and several such methods have been developed. Indeed, there are so many developed techniques that it is difficult for practitioners to choose the best among them for their applications, even when using evaluation metrics. As a result, the demand for a selection tool, a meta-explanation technique based on a high-quality evaluation metric, is apparent. In this paper, we present a local meta-explanation technique which builds on top of the truthfulness metric, which is a faithfulness-based metric. We demonstrate the effectiveness of both the technique and the metric by concretely defining all the concepts and through experimentation.